A few days ago, when President Trump was “triggering” the media with his comments about accepting foreign oppo research, the Hill highlighted this national poll from Quinnipiac showing Biden would win in a head-to-head matchup against the president by the “landslide” margin of 53% to 40%.
Unsurprisingly, Twitter immediately pointed out that this was exactly what the pollster geniuses said about Hillary Clinton. And like Clinton, Biden’s main selling point is that he’s “popular” and “experienced.” Polls are a major factor in this. If Biden’s supporters become disabused of the notion that he’s ‘the only one who can beat Trump’, the former vice president could very well lose his grip on the 2020 nomination.
But this time around, even other Democrats are whining about the polls, according to the Hill.
“These same geniuses all predicted that Hillary Clinton was unstoppable and inevitable,” said Chris Kofinis, a Democratic pollster.
Another pollster said any Democrat who believes that Biden is ahead by a landslide is “doomed to repeat” the mistakes of 2016.
While Trump argues the polls undersell his support, some Democrats say surveys showing Biden well ahead of the Democratic field are not to be trusted.
Both sides think a close race in 2020 is likely and that surveys showing Biden and other Democrats with huge leads aren’t likely to reflect Election Day’s reality.
“Anyone who believes that the Democratic candidate is headed for a landslide victory right now is doomed to repeat the tragic history of 2016,” Kofinis said. “It’s a fundamental mistake for anyone to believe that reality can be projected or predicted based on these polls this far out from the general election.”
But here’s another thing to consider: The poll showed 77% of respondents describing their personal financial situation as at least “good.” Employment is high and inflation is low, but still, American consumers are facing unsustainable debt burdens, have little, or no, savings and in what’s probably the most obvious indicator that young people are feeling increasingly financially unmoored.
And 77 percent said their own personal financial situation is “excellent” or “good,” which is close to the all-time high of 78 percent recorded in April of 2018.
It could be that registered voters (the poll’s sample group) tend to be more affluent than the general population. And it may be that this complication is influencing the results – or maybe it’s not. But it’s certainly something to think about.
And anyone who doubts this should go back and read this post by a talented statistician. Once again, Democrats will repeat the phrase ‘Trump can’t possibly win’ to themselves until he does it.
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